10 January 2024 (online)
The second webinar series on climate change projection for disaster risk reduction in Asia-Pacific region was held on 10 January 2024. This webinar highlighted the results of projection study held in Nepal and the utilization of climate change-related data. The Advanced Study of Climate Change Projection (SENTAN) Project invited two experts from Nepal to the webinar to share their information and experiences.
Prof. Binaya Kumar Mishra, School of Engineering at Pokhara University, presented the projected changes in flood frequency at Bagmati River in Nepal. The Bagmati river basin, located at the upstream of Khokana, covers the Kathmandu valley which in recent years has been experiencing devasting flood events. In view of this, Pokhara University set up the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to assess the change in flood discharge under climate change scenarios. Very high-resolution of Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM) precipitation outputs was used to assess the future flood risks in the Kathmandu valley. The major results found in this study were: 1) greater precipitation extremes were found for the Regional Climate Model (RCM) precipitation output; and 2) the increase in precipitation extremes for future climate condition indicates greater flood risks in Kathmandu valley.
Ms Bibhuti Pokharel, Chief of Climate Section, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of the Government of Nepal, presented the Climate Service Information that DHM provides. She mentioned that DHM monitors the precipitation and temperature in Nepal to inform imminent droughts, heat waves, and extreme events. The climate data, produced by DHM, is utilized for climate projections as well as to inform the national master plan and policy on climate change. Moreover, the climate service information is provided to the following sectors: aviation, agriculture, water, energy, health, and disaster risk reduction (DRR). However, there are limitations and gaps in the climate information service. Ms Pokharel said that the quality of climate information was not high due to some limitations in research capacity and infrastructure. For instance, while DHM currently utilizes statistical downscaling, it has no capacity to utilize dynamical downscaling. Therefore, the assistance of partners such as SENTAN will be highly appreciated.
Other speakers at the webinar were: (1) Prof. MORI Nobuhito, Research Division of Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Disasters, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, who introduced Japan's National Climate Program or SENTAN; (2) Dr NAKAEGAWA Toshiyuki, Head of Second Laboratory, Department of Applied Meteorology Research, Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency, who showed how future climates are projected in a computer; (3) Dr MURATA Akihiko, Head First Laboratory, Department of Applied Meteorology Research, Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency, who presented the dynamical downscaling of climate projection data; (4) Mr MORI Noriyuki, Deputy Director, International Center for Water Hazard and Risk Management, who presented on the Platforms on Water Resilience and Disasters for Social Sustainability; and (5) Prof. TACHIKAWA Yasuto, Hydrology and Water Resources Research Laboratory, Kyoto University, who explained about the key points raised at the webinar and encouraged further collaboration between SENTAN Project and DHM Nepal.
This webinar was co-facilitated by Prof. KOBAYASHI Kenichiro, Associate Professor at the Risk Communication Research Department, Security Research Communication Group, Research Center for Urban Safety and Security in Kobe University and Mr Gerry Potutan, Senior Researcher at Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC). The video recording and materials can be accessed on the website: