Issues and resources in disaster forecasting are covered, including instruction on the role of N.O.A.A. in U.S. disaster forecasting.The need for threat analysis and useful tools to assess hazards and threats in regional and local environments will be discussed. Participants will apply threat analysis to their own areas of responsibility to build a base for future planning. Hazards are defined and a method for the systematic assessment of the degree of hazards is taught. An understanding of hazards as risks are differentiated from actual disasters. The role of human activity in causing a hazard to become a disaster is defined. Factors that amplify the effect of human activity, such as physical injury, property losses, economic losses, sociological effects, psychological impacts, and political consequences, are described. Additional factors discussed are hazard types (natural, technological, or human), geographic and seasonal variations, predictability, duration, and mechanisms of injury. Pitfalls in hazard analysis, such as the tendency to extend an understanding of one hazard to all hazards, are identified. Criteria for ranking hazards -p; history (the number of incidents within a given time period), vulnerability (the number of persons and property affected), maximum threat (the greatest impact it will have on affected area), and probability (the likelihood of the event) -p; are presented. A method of qualitatively assessing hazard potential links the issues in this presentation, providing a useful tool for participants to use in their own planning.
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